SNAP Funding Risk 2028: 41 States Topped the 6% Error Line, 35 Face a Cost Share

SNAP Funding Risk 2028: 41 states topped the 6% SNAP error-rate line in FY2025. See each state’s rate, the 5%/10%/15% cost share, delay rules and what could change. Headlines say “41 states at risk of losing SNAP funding.” The reality is more specific. Under the 2025 budget reconciliation law (the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, H.R. 1 or P.L. 119-21), states with high SNAP payment error rates will have to pay part of their own SNAP benefit costs, starting in federal fiscal year 2028. That is a cost shift to state budgets. It is not a direct cut to any household’s benefit.

This guide on SNAP Funding Risk 2028 explains what the error rate is, how the penalty works, which states are affected, what is still undecided in Congress, and what it could mean for families.

The Short Version

• USDA released FY2025 payment error rates on June 24, 2026, with a national rate of 10.62%, well above the congressional threshold of 6%.
• States at or above 6% must cover 5%, 10% or 15% of their benefits, in most cases from October 1, 2027.
• Six states and D.C. with the highest rates get a delay, so the first-year bill falls on 35 states and one territory.
• CBPP estimates the cost shift at roughly $9 billion in fiscal year 2028 alone.
• Congress has not changed the schedule. A Senate farm bill proposal would delay it by one year, but it is not law.

What Is the SNAP Payment Error Rate?

The state payment error rates measure the accuracy of each state’s eligibility and benefit determinations, and payment errors include both underpayments and overpayments. In FY2025 the national overpayment rate was 9.28% and the underpayment rate was 1.33%.

The rate is not a fraud rate. Payment errors do not necessarily indicate fraud. The rate counts households receiving more or less than the correct amount, often because of mistakes by state agencies or recipients at application or recertification. Each month states review sampled case files, and USDA re-reviews about half to determine benefit errors.

USDA’s view is that the numbers show a serious problem. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the rates show state accountability is severely lacking. Critics respond that errors largely reflect administrative strain, and that wrongly denying eligible households is not counted as an error. Both points matter for how the penalty is judged.

How the Penalty Works?

Beginning in FY2028, states with error rates above 6% must pay a share of SNAP benefit costs.

Key rules

1. First year (FY2028). States can choose to use their FY2025 or FY2026 error rate. FY2028 begins October 1, 2027.
2. Later years. From FY2029, the rate from three years earlier is used, for example the FY2026 rate for FY2029.
3. Delay for the highest rates. A state with an FY2025 error rate at or above 13.33% does not pay in FY2028, and cost-sharing starts in FY2029. A state at or above 13.33% in FY2026 is delayed until FY2030.
4. Timing of FY2026 data. USDA will not finalize FY2026 rates until June 30, 2027, one day before the new fiscal year begins for 46 states.
5. Administrative costs are a separate change. Under the 2025 law, the federal share of ordinary state administrative costs falls from 50% to 25% on October 1, 2026. That means states now cover 75% of administration, regardless of error rate.

FY2025 State-by-State Error Rates and Projected FY2028 Cost Share

The table below shows each state’s FY2025 rate, the cost-share percentage it would owe in FY2028 if that rate is used, and an approximate annual cost. The dollar estimates are CBPP projections based on benefit spending in the first six months of FY2026, and they are rounded and uncertain. Actual amounts will depend on each state’s FY2025 or FY2026 error rate and benefit costs in FY2028.

An asterisk (*) means the rate is high enough to qualify for the one-year delay.

Source: CBPP analysis of USDA FY2025 data, published July 23, 2026. Guam (11.70%, 15%) and the U.S. Virgin Islands (5.36%, 0%) are also covered by SNAP, while Puerto Rico, American Samoa and the Northern Mariana Islands receive block grants instead. The official USDA table is linked below.

How the 41 States Break Down?

Based on FY2025 rates, nine states and the U.S. Virgin Islands are below 6% and owe nothing in FY2028. Six states fall in the 5% tier, 16 states in the 10% tier, and 13 states and Guam in the 15% tier. Six states and D.C. are at or above 13.33% and are not billed in FY2028.

That is how 41 states are “above 6%”: 6 + 16 + 13 + 6 = 41. Only 35 of them would pay in FY2028 unless the schedule changes, because six get a delay.

• Lowest rates (FY2025): South Dakota 2.47%, Idaho 3.85%, Wyoming 3.96%, Kentucky 4.70%.
• Highest rates: Alaska at 23.15%, New Mexico 16.81%, Delaware 16%, Georgia 15.21%, Illinois 14.67% and Oregon 14.14%.

The Quirks and Controversies

The “reward for errors” problem. The delay goes to the worst performers. New York at 13.18% could face a cost shift of about $1.15 billion, while Illinois at 14.67% initially qualifies for a delay. Supporters of the law point to the need for accountability and a hard cutoff. Critics say it weakens the immediate incentive for the worst states to improve.

New Jersey’s dilemma. New Jersey cut its error rate from 14.33% in FY2024 to 6.86% in FY2025, the largest improvement in the country, but that moved it out of the delayed group and exposed it to a cost share of roughly $100 million.

Close calls. An increase of only one-tenth of a percentage point in Nebraska’s error rate would put it over 6%. Wisconsin (5.72%) and Utah (5.54%) are also close.

Timing. The FY2025 error rates largely reflect decisions made before the reconciliation law was enacted on July 4, 2025. States say they had little time to change outcomes before the penalty was set.

What Is Still Undecided?

Federal guidance. USDA has not issued regulations or guidance on how state cost-sharing of SNAP will be implemented. States don’t yet know when or how the cost share will be paid, or whether it applies to Disaster SNAP.

Farm bill proposals. On Sept. 24, 2026 the Senate Agriculture Committee reported S. 5526, which would delay cost-sharing by one year, to Oct. 1, 2028. It still needs the full Senate and a deal with the House. The House-passed H.R. 7567 keeps current law. Neither is law.” Keep the sentence about the 15% to 20% maximum from FY2031.

Calls for delay. New York House Democrats have urged Senate leadership to secure a two-year delay. A coalition of state and local government groups asked Congress in January 2026 to postpone both the benefit cost-share and the higher administrative share until FY2030.

What the Penalty Could Mean for Families?

The law does not directly reduce any household’s benefit. But states must balance their budgets, and the choices they make could affect access.

What critics warn. CBPP warns that if states cannot cover the costs by raising taxes or cutting other services, they may cut SNAP further or even withdraw from the program. CBPP also reports SNAP participation has already fallen by more than 4.5 million people, according to its tracker, with some states adding paperwork requirements that make it harder for eligible people to get benefits. Those figures come from an advocacy organization, so treat them as one perspective and check state data.

What supporters argue. The administration’s position is that financial consequences push states to run the program accurately and protect taxpayer dollars. Payment accuracy also matters to families, since underpayments mean eligible households receive less than they are owed.

Practical advice if you receive SNAP

1. Respond quickly to recertification notices and interview requests.
2. Keep documents ready (income, rent, utilities, household members).
3. Report changes on time, because mistakes in either direction can cause problems.
4. Use official channels only: your state SNAP agency and USDA.
5. If your benefits are denied or stopped, ask for a fair hearing, since you have the right to appeal.

Official Sources and Links

Secondary sources used for cross-checking (not official)

Conclusion

The “41 states” figure is real, but the framing matters. Those states topped the 6% error line in FY2025, and 35 of them face a bill of 5%, 10% or 15% of benefit costs starting October 2027 under current law, while six states and D.C. get a delay. Supporters see accountability, critics see a budget squeeze that could reduce access, and Congress may still change the timeline. For readers, the best steps are to follow your state’s SNAP agency, keep paperwork current and check the official USDA table for your state.

Disclaimer: This article is general information, not legal or financial advice. Error rates, estimates and legislation change, so confirm figures with USDA and your state agency.

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