Trump Approval Rating by State: 39 States Net Negative Before the Midterms, and What the Social Security COLA Can and Cannot Change

Trump Approval Rating by State: The Trump approval rating is net negative in 39 states, according to the latest state-by-state reading from the Civiqs tracker, published by Newsweek on October 3, and the November 3 midterm elections are 18 days away. The tracker, built from nearly 134,000 responses from registered voters since January 2025, puts approval at 34 percent and disapproval at 60 percent nationally. Ten states are net positive, led by Wyoming, North Dakota and West Virginia, and Montana is tied. Every major battleground on the list is underwater, including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Other trackers show a less severe picture. The Silver Bulletin average stood at net minus 22.4 on October 15, after touching a record low of minus 23.9 over the weekend. Pollsters disagree on the size of the gap, but the direction is consistent. We will be updating this article monthly.

Two pressures sit behind the numbers, and one new event may or may not matter. Gas prices averaged $4.33 a gallon on October 14, according to AAA, up from below $3 before the U.S.-led war with Iran began in February. Gas has now topped $4 on a record 158 days this year, and diesel averages $6.29. On Wednesday the Social Security Administration announced a 3.6 percent cost-of-living adjustment, the largest since 2023, worth about $75 a month to the average retired worker. That raises a question that campaigns are already asking: can a bigger Social Security check offset anger over prices? This report lays out the polling, the energy data, the forecasts and the limits of the COLA, with a calculator so you can test the math on a real budget. It does not predict how anyone will vote, and approval ratings are not election results.

Trump Approval Rating by State Key Highlights

Trump Approval Rating by State: Highest, Lowest and Battleground Numbers

The Civiqs figures use net approval, which is approval minus disapproval. A negative number means more registered voters disapprove than approve. The numbers below come from the October 3 Newsweek analysis, which did not publish state sample sizes or margins of error, so small differences between states should be treated as noise.

The biggest swing since January 2025 was in Kentucky, which moved from plus 23 to minus 10, a 33-point drop. Even in states where the president remains net positive, the margins are lower than at the start of his term. Note that Newsweek disclosed that an AI assistant was used to help produce its story, so readers who want to check the raw figures should consult the Civiqs tracker directly.

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Why Trump Approval Rating Polls Do Not Match

A first-time reader might ask why one source says minus 26 and another says minus 22. The answer is method. Civiqs reports a rolling online tracker of registered voters. The Silver Bulletin figure is an average that combines many pollsters. Individual polls move around more. According to Silver Bulletin’s October 15 update, the slight bounce from minus 23.9 to minus 22.4 came mostly from two new polls, one from TIPP Insights and one from Noble Predictive Insights, which showed net minus 13 and net minus 12. That is a spread of more than 10 points between pollsters on the same day.

Four points help you read any approval number:

• Registered voters, likely voters and all adults can give different results.
• Online panels, phone polls and mixed-mode polls can differ by several points.
• A state estimate comes from a model, not from a poll of that state alone, unless the pollster says it did a state survey.
• A record low is a short-term event, and an average can recover when new polls arrive.

Do 39 Negative States Mean a Midterm Loss? Forecasts and Generic Ballot

Approval ratings and election outcomes are linked but not the same thing. The president’s party has historically tended to lose House seats in midterm years, and presidential approval is one of the signals forecasters use. Congressional races, though, are decided district by district. A state that is net negative for the president can still elect members of his party, and a state that is net positive can still flip a seat.

The most recent forecasts we found predate this month, so treat them as context and not as a current reading. FiftyPlusOne’s model, published August 3, gave Democrats an 85 percent chance of winning the House and a 55 percent chance in the Senate. It projected a median of 230 Democratic House seats and a national House vote margin of about 7 points. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in a July 30 update, rated 208 seats as leaning Republican or better, 207 as leaning Democratic or better and 20 as tossups. It said Democrats were still favored to flip the House, with a majority in the low to mid 220s, but that Republicans still had a viable path to keep control. Generic ballot polls in July ranged from a 6-point Democratic lead in a Pew survey to an 11-point lead in an Emerson survey, and Crystal Ball summarized the averages as roughly 5 to 6 points.

Model builders acknowledge uncertainty. The FiftyPlusOne author notes that Senate polling in several races was thin and could tighten, and that independent candidates in some states could change the math. Forecasts also cannot account for late events. Check current numbers on the day you read this.

Gas Prices 2026: The Energy Squeeze Behind the Approval Numbers

Prices at the pump are among the most visible costs in daily life, and they have moved sharply this year. The table summarizes the most recent AAA figures reported in news coverage.

AAA’s own commentary points to oil prices easing slightly, with the U.S. benchmark crude settling near $90 a barrel in early October, and to gasoline demand slipping. ABC News reported global benchmarks above $100 a barrel, about 50 percent above pre-war levels. Different benchmarks explain the gap. The underlying causes include disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, an attack on a major Saudi pipeline reported in September and the collapse of a tentative accord in August.

On September 9, the president told reporters he expects Iran to abandon its war effort after the November midterms and conceded that gas prices are unlikely to fall before then, saying it would take a little longer than the election. Earlier in the year, the Treasury Secretary had predicted gas could return near $3 by Labor Day, and the conflict has lasted much longer than the administration’s initial estimate of four to six weeks. Supporters of the administration argue that the conflict is necessary and that costs are temporary. Critics say price relief has failed to arrive and that affordability is hurting households. Consumer sentiment in September fell close to the lowest level in the University of Michigan survey’s 74-year history, though that measure covers overall confidence and not only gas.

Can the Social Security COLA Save Republicans? The Case For and Against

This is the question in the headlines, and the honest answer is that no one knows. We did not find a poll that tests whether the COLA changes vote choice, so what follows is analysis of the facts, not a forecast.

The case that it could help rests on scale and timing of the news. About 72 million Social Security beneficiaries and about 7.3 million SSI recipients will see a 3.6 percent increase, compared with 2.8 percent for 2026. Older voters typically turn out at high rates in midterm elections, and many are sensitive to anything that touches their monthly income. A bigger raise than last year gives campaigns something concrete to discuss. Republican candidates can point to the size of the increase and to steps such as the one-time $90 Part B payment for some Original Medicare enrollees, announced October 8.

The case that it will not rests on four facts. First, the COLA is automatic. A formula set in law in 1975 compares third-quarter consumer prices year to year, and neither party enacts it. Voters may not credit a politician for a formula. Second, it exists because prices rose. News coverage of the announcement tied the larger figure partly to higher energy costs after the Iran war began, so the raise partly measures the problem. Third, timing works against any direct effect. The new checks arrive with the January benefit, which is after November 3, and SSA’s personal notices arrive in December. What voters can feel before the election is the announcement, not the money. Fourth, a raise does not cancel a price shock that hits retirees who drive. At $4.33 gas, the gasoline portion of a household budget can absorb a meaningful share of a $75 increase, as the calculator below shows.

There is also the larger solvency issue. The 2026 Trustees Report, released June 9, projects the retirement trust fund will run out of reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, with an automatic cut of about 22 percent if Congress does not act. Combined with the disability fund, the date is 2034. A Peterson Foundation poll of 2,500 registered voters in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, conducted August 20 to 27 with a margin of error of 4.4 points, found 91 percent support changes to prevent automatic cuts and that voters were much more likely to back Senate candidates with a plan to avert them. An AARP Colorado survey reported that 93 percent of voters 50 and older are more likely to support candidates who protect Social Security. Those findings are about candidates’ plans, not about the COLA, but they suggest that long-term security may weigh as much as this year’s raise.

Our reading is limited to what the evidence supports. A 3.6 percent COLA is good news for beneficiaries, is unlikely to be forgotten by older voters and arrives in a political environment where price concerns dominate. Whether it moves a single race depends on local campaigns, turnout and events in the next 18 days.

What the 3.6 Percent COLA Means for Your Check

SSA says the average retired worker benefit rises from $2,095 to $2,170 in January, an increase of about $75. The figures below are straight arithmetic at 3.6 percent. Most people on Medicare see the standard Part B premium deducted from their check, and the Trustees project it at $209.50 for 2027, up $6.60 from $202.90, though CMS has not confirmed it.

How to Check Your 2027 Social Security COLA

You do not apply for a COLA. It is added automatically to Social Security and SSI benefits. To see your own amount, follow these steps.

1. Create or sign in to your online account at mySocialSecurity, using the login link in the table below.
2. Look in your messages for your 2027 COLA notice, where your account offers it, once SSA begins sending notices in December.
3. If you prefer mail, watch for a paper notice through the end of the year.
4. Check your new gross benefit, your Medicare premium deduction and any tax withholding.
5. If something looks wrong, call SSA at 1-800-772-1213 or visit a local office with your notice.

COLA Notice Processing Time and When Notices Arrive

SSA has said it will send beneficiaries notices about the COLA, with mailings running through the end of the year. Your notice shows your new benefit, your Medicare premium and your net deposit. Medicare’s final 2027 Part B premium is expected in November, before the notices go out. If you do not receive a notice by early January, check your online account and call SSA.

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Social Security Payment Schedule for the COLA

SSI recipients receive their increased payment on December 31, 2026, because January 1 is a federal holiday. Social Security beneficiaries see the 3.6 percent increase in benefits paid for January 2027. For people who receive Social Security on a Wednesday schedule, the January 2027 dates are:

People who receive payments on the 3rd of the month, including some who receive both Social Security and SSI, follow SSA’s holiday rules, so check the official payment calendar for the exact day.

COLA and Gas Price Budget Calculator

Use the calculator below to compare your COLA with the change in your fuel bill. Enter your monthly benefit, the COLA, the expected Part B increase and how many gallons of gas you buy each month. It then shows your net raise, how much more you pay for gas than a year ago and whether the raise covers it. You can also change the gas price to test what happens if prices fall back toward $3. Defaults use AAA’s reported $4.33 and last year’s $3.16.

What to Watch Before Election Day

Several things can move opinion or the way people read it in the final 18 days. None of them is certain, and none is a prediction.

First, watch the daily gas price. AAA publishes a national average every day, and a sustained drop or a new spike would change the conversation more quickly than any poll. The president has said relief is unlikely before the election, so the baseline expectation among his critics and his supporters alike is that prices stay high. Second, watch the polling averages and not single polls. When one survey shows a double-digit spread from another, as TIPP and Noble Predictive did against the Civiqs reading, the average is a safer guide than any headline. Third, watch the details of the Social Security debate. The COLA is settled, but the Trustees’ 2032 warning and candidate plans for it are open questions, and the Peterson Foundation poll suggests voters notice which candidates have a plan.

Fourth, watch turnout rules in your state. Early voting dates, mail ballot deadlines and identification requirements vary by state, so use the official site in the table below and your state election office to confirm yours. Fifth, watch for late changes to the Medicare numbers that affect retirees, since CMS is expected to confirm the Part B premium in November. A higher figure would trim the net COLA slightly, and a lower one would add to it.

Finally, remember what approval ratings do and do not measure. They record how voters feel about the president today. They do not record how those voters will choose between two local candidates, and they do not capture people who are not polled or who change their minds. State numbers in particular carry wide uncertainty. For a voter, the most useful step is practical: check that you are registered, find your polling place or ballot deadline and make a plan.

Key Dates for the Midterms and the COLA

Official Websites for the COLA, Voting and Gas Prices

Trump Approval Rating and Midterm FAQs

Conclusion

The Trump approval rating is net negative in 39 states, and gas prices at $4.33 are a visible reason many voters say they feel squeezed. The 3.6 percent Social Security COLA is a real raise for about 72 million people, but it is formula-driven, partly a reflection of higher prices and paid after Election Day. It may help some candidates tell a story to older voters. It cannot change gas prices or the long-term solvency question that polls show voters care about. The next 18 days will show which factor weighs more. For readers, the practical steps are simple. Check your own COLA notice, run your budget with the calculator, confirm your polling place and make a plan to vote. We will keep this article updated as new polls and forecasts arrive.

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