Social Security 2027 COLA Forecast: Largest Raise Since 2023 — See the Latest Estimates and What They Mean for Your Check

The Social Security Administration announced a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 on October 14, 2026, the largest increase since 2023 (the 2026 COLA was 2.8%). The average retired worker’s check rises about $75 a month, from $2,095 to $2,170, starting with January 2027 benefits.

Key Highlights

The figures below come from SSA’s October 14, 2026 press release and 2027 COLA fact sheet. They replace the earlier analyst estimates (3.5% to 4.7%) that circulated before the announcement.

ItemOfficial figure
2027 COLA3.6% (2026 COLA: 2.8%)
AnnouncedWednesday, October 14, 2026
BasisCPI-W, third quarter 2025 to third quarter 2026
Average retired worker, monthly$2,095 to $2,170 (+$75)
Social Security beneficiaries affectedNearly 72 million
Including SSI recipients76 million Americans; about 7.3 million get SSI
First SSI payment with the COLADecember 31, 2026
First retirement/SSDI payments with the COLAJanuary 13, 20 or 27, 2027, by birth date
Official websitessa.gov/cola
Social Security 2027 COLA Forecast
Social Security 2027 COLA Forecast

What the COLA is and how it is calculated

The COLA is an annual increase to Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits that helps payments keep pace with inflation. By law it follows the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SSA averages the CPI-W for July, August and September and compares it with the same three months a year earlier. For 2027 that is the third quarter of 2025 against the third quarter of 2026, and the percentage rise, 3.6%, is the COLA. It applies to benefits paid for January 2027 onward.

The CPI-W differs from the CPI-U used in most inflation headlines because it weights the spending of urban wage earners and clerical workers. A higher COLA does not guarantee better purchasing power: it depends on what you spend on housing, food, health care and utilities.

What it means for your check

SSA estimates average monthly benefits payable in January 2027 as follows. Your own amount depends on your current benefit, and Medicare premiums or other deductions reduce the net raise.

Beneficiary groupBefore 3.6% COLAAfter 3.6% COLAChange
All retired workers$2,095$2,170+$75
Aged couple, both receiving benefits$3,238$3,355+$117
Aged widow(er) alone$1,936$2,005+$69
All disabled workers$1,642$1,701+$59
Disabled worker, spouse and one or more children$2,970$3,077+$107
Widowed mother and two children$3,932$4,074+$142

For a retired worker this is roughly $900 more over a year. The 3.6% rate applies equally to everyone, so larger checks get larger dollar increases. SSI recipients see their federal payment standard rise from $994 to $1,029 a month for an individual and from $1,491 to $1,544 for a couple.

When the increase arrives

Because January 1, 2027 is a federal holiday, SSI and the 3rd-of-the-month Social Security payments for January are issued early, on Thursday, December 31, 2026. This corrects an earlier version of this article, which listed January 3 for pre-May 1997 beneficiaries.

WhoFirst payment with the 3.6% COLA
SSI recipientsThursday, December 31, 2026
Social Security started before May 1997, or receiving both Social Security and SSIThursday, December 31, 2026
Retirement, survivor and SSDI, birthday 1st to 10thWednesday, January 13, 2027
Birthday 11th to 20thWednesday, January 20, 2027
Birthday 21st to 31stWednesday, January 27, 2027

SSA’s 2027 payment calendar lists every month. Because SSI is paid on the 1st, the December 31 payment counts as the January payment, so December 2026 shows two SSI deposits and January 2027 shows none.

Other Social Security changes for 2027

SSA’s fact sheet also sets the annual wage-indexed limits. The payroll tax rate is unchanged: 7.65% for employees and 15.30% for the self-employed, plus an extra 0.9% Medicare tax above $200,000 ($250,000 for joint filers).

Item20262027
Maximum taxable earnings (Social Security)$184,500$192,300
Maximum employee Social Security tax (6.2%)$11,439.00$11,922.60
Earnings for one work credit$1,890$1,970
Earnings limit, under full retirement age$24,480/yr ($2,040/mo)$25,560/yr ($2,130/mo)
Earnings limit, year you reach full retirement age$65,160/yr ($5,430/mo)$67,920/yr ($5,660/mo)
Disability earnings limit (SGA), non-blind$1,690/mo$1,770/mo
Disability earnings limit (SGA), blind$2,830/mo$2,950/mo
Trial work period$1,210/mo$1,270/mo
Maximum benefit at full retirement age$4,152/mo$4,188/mo
SSI federal payment standard, individual$994/mo$1,029/mo
SSI federal payment standard, couple$1,491/mo$1,544/mo
SSI resource limit, individual / couple$2,000 / $3,000$2,000 / $3,000
SSI student exclusion, monthly / annual$2,410 / $9,730$2,500 / $10,080

Under the earnings test, $1 in benefits is withheld for every $2 earned above the lower limit, and $1 for every $3 above the higher limit in the year you reach full retirement age. From the month you reach full retirement age there is no limit. The maximum Social Security tax is calculated as 6.2% of the taxable maximum.

Medicare and your net raise

Most Medicare enrollees have the Part B premium deducted from their Social Security check, so the take-home increase is smaller than the COLA. As of November 2, 2026, CMS has not published the official 2027 Part B premium or deductible; it normally does so in November. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects the figures below.

Medicare item20262027
Part B standard premium$202.90/mo$209.50/mo (projected)
Part B deductible$283$292 (projected)
Part D deductible$615$700 (final)
Part D out-of-pocket cap$2,100$2,400 (final)
Part D national base beneficiary premiumn/a$41.33 (final)

If the projected Part B premium holds, it would take about $6.60 of the average $75 raise, leaving roughly $68 a month. Higher earners pay income-related surcharges, which for 2027 are based on your 2025 tax return.

SSA will post your 2027 COLA notice, including your Medicare premium, in your my Social Security Message Center starting in late November. Create an account and enroll in paperless notices by November 18 to see it online; everyone else gets a one-page notice by mail in December.

Trust fund outlook

The COLA is one factor in Social Security’s finances; the program’s long-term outlook also depends on payroll tax revenue, wages, employment, life expectancy, fertility, immigration and any changes Congress makes. The 2026 Trustees Report, released June 9, 2026, projects:

  • The retirement (OASI) trust fund can pay full benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032. After that, incoming revenue would cover 78% of scheduled OASI benefits.
  • If the OASI and disability (DI) funds were combined, full benefits could be paid until 2034, with 83% payable afterward. Combining them would require a change in the law.
  • The DI fund stays solvent throughout the 75-year projection period.
  • Combined reserves fell $160 billion in 2025 to $2.56 trillion, and the 75-year shortfall rose to 4.42% of taxable payroll from 3.82%.

Proposals to close the gap include changes to payroll taxes, the taxation of benefits and benefit formulas, each affecting workers, retirees and taxpayers differently. Check the latest Trustees Report and Congressional Budget Office analyses for current projections.

How to check your own benefit

  1. Go to ssa.gov and select Sign In, or create a my Social Security account at ssa.gov/myaccount.
  2. Open your Message Center from late November to see your COLA notice with your exact new amount, any deductions and payment dates.
  3. Review your current monthly benefit and your Statement for future estimates.
  4. Confirm your payment day on SSA’s payment calendar.
  5. Turn on text or email alerts so you are told when a new message arrives.

The my Social Security portal is the only official source for personalized benefit information. Avoid third-party sites that ask for personal or banking details under the guise of a “COLA calculator.”

Frequently asked questions

Will Social Security get a raise in 2027?

Yes. SSA announced a 3.6% COLA on October 14, 2026. Before the announcement, analysts including The Senior Citizens League and Mary Johnson had forecast about 3.5%.

How much will my check increase?

About 3.6% of your current benefit. The average retired worker gains about $75 a month, from $2,095 to $2,170. Medicare premiums and other deductions reduce the net amount.

When will the increase show up?

SSI recipients and those who started Social Security before May 1997 (or receive both) are paid on December 31, 2026. Other beneficiaries are paid on January 13, 20 or 27, 2027, by birth date.

How is the COLA calculated?

By comparing average CPI-W for July through September of this year with the same months last year.

How does 3.6% compare with past years?

It is the largest since 2023, when the COLA was 8.7%, the highest in recent decades. The 2026 COLA was 2.8%, and 2027 is the sixth straight year at 2.5% or more.

Do SSI recipients get the COLA too?

Yes, at the same 3.6%. The federal SSI standard rises to $1,029 a month for an individual and $1,544 for a couple.

Is a COLA guaranteed every year?

No. When consumer prices do not rise enough, the COLA can be 0%, as it was in 2010, 2011 and 2016.

Where can I see my own estimate?

In your my Social Security account at ssa.gov/myaccount.

Sources

Checked November 2, 2026.

Medicare 2027 Part B amounts are Trustees Report projections until CMS publishes its official announcement.

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